Stochastic modeling

Usually, when modeling the movement of groundwater and transfer of dissolved contaminants, average values ​​of seepage and migration parameters are given for every aquifer.At the same time the values of these parameters for a particular aquifer can be described by means of the probability principle (for certain parameter value the relative frequency of its appearance is given).

 

If simulate the spread of contaminants considering that for a given aquifer seepage and migration parameters can be changed within certain limits at a given frequency, we will obtain not a specific value of the pollutant concentration, but the probability of its presence in some areas.These results will be more reliable while assessing the risk of getting certain pollutants into the water object (water wells, reservoir, river) and will help you make the right managerial decision.

 

Стохастическое моделирование